Syrian President
Bashar Al Assad will lose power to the opposition who will rebuild the country with significant international support, according to Wikistrat and the Diplomatic Courier latest report.
Wikistrat and the Diplomatic Courier made public the most pertinent foreign policy issues for the new years’ global agenda in “Predicting 2013 – Opportunities and Threats.”
“Predicting 2013” outlines a series of positive scenarios for the next 12 months; while Iran’s strategic position in the region is weakened. Fears of an “Islamist Winter” thaw as Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia make great economic and political strides. Venezuela’s Chavez’s declining health parallels the end of Fidel Castro’s rule and the signing of a new peace deal in Colombia between the government and FARC rebels as the entire region converges to combat drug cartels. China relaxes slightly and great strides are made over access to the South China Sea’s resources for other nations. Western nations avoid the “fiscal cliff” and the Eurozone climbs out of its dark red bank account. Lastly, U.S. President Obama opens his second term with a promise to develop an “energy-smart America.”
“Every December our editors and analysts reflect on the top international issues of the year so that they may forecast strategically what issues will shape the foreign policy agenda in the year ahead,” Ana C. Rold, Editor of Diplomatic Courier, said. “This year, we are thrilled to bring our readers insightful analysis by next generation strategy thinkers at Wikistrat.”
Drawn from a collaboration of more than 60 international Wikistrat analysts, the report was compiled during a 48-hour crowd sourced brainstorming exercise in December.
While some of the foreign policy recommendations from 2012 have endured or are well known, “Predicting 2013” identifies fresh positive and negative scenarios to watch for in the year ahead. On the negative, the participants discussed the likelihood that Syria’s Assad will resort to the use of chemical weapons that in turn prompt a coalition of Muslim, Arab, and NATO nations. They also debated how the continuation of the Arab Spring, or “Revolution 2.0,” will bring about reform in nations with ruling families and possibly end friendly monarchies. A number of other negative scenarios followed. A hardline Japanese Prime Minister will increase tensions with China and others, while al-Qaeda’s strength in Africa and the Middle East grows. Iran will go nuclear, while the careful stability in Iraq unravels. And lastly on the gloomier side, environmental disasters like hurricanes will add to the woes of the global economy and trigger a global recession.