“Even if there is an advantage to be gleaned from a low natural gas price, this should not, for the time being, be overestimated, even in the energy intensive sectors. That said, over the next few years, shale oil and gas will certainly ease the US energy constraint,” Anton Brender, Chief economist of Dexia Asset Management (Dexia AM), said.
Meanwhile, for households, even if credit conditions are still tight for the less affluent among them, mortgage lending is gradually picking up while residential investment – playing again its usual role of growth engine – should continue to grow at a robust pace. The rise in household wealth, boosted by the rebound in property prices and in the stock markets, should help households maintain their savings rate at current levels. Consumption should, accordingly, improve in line with wages.
“The current pace of recovery on the job market is, from this point of view, reassuring. The US economy is nearing self-sustained growth and now seems capable of resisting the current fiscal tightening,” he added.
“Unfortunately, the fiscal debate is far from over: the matter of the raising of the debt ceiling has but been postponed for a few months and no compromise have yet been found to reduce the long-term imbalances in the Medicare and Medicaid programmes. In the meanwhile, one thing is sure: even if activity accelerates from an average of 2% in 2013 to 2.5% in 2014, monetary policy will remain accommodating.”