“The Syrian conflict is heading towards a long-bloody war as the chances of direct involvement of the Western allies including the GCC seem too little,” Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the IISS at the launch of his book on Syria said.
“With continuing heavy causalities being inflicted on the opposition groups by Syrian regime, the global community fails to respond, perhaps, they don’t want to see another conflict in the Middle East. Also, the price for intervening in Syria will be too high, thanks to the geo-strategic position of this country. This conflict can be managed and contained by militarily but there would be no other solution than a political one,” he explained.
“As a peaceful uprising quickly and brutally descended into a zero-sum civil war, Syria crumbled from a regional player into an arena in which a multitude of local and foreign actors compete. The volatile regional fault lines that run through Syria have severely ruptured during this conflict, and the course of events in this fragile yet strategically significant country will profoundly shape the future of the Levant,” he said.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies –Middle East launched Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant, a new IISS Adelphi book by Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the IISS. Over the course of the event, which followed a majlis to honor the spirit of the Holy month of Ramadan, Hokayem gave a presentation and answered questions from an audience of diplomats, business leaders and professionals at the Middle East headquarters of the IISS in Bahrain.
“By and large domestic factors are in favour of Assad’s regime but it doesn’t mean that he was winning the war absolutely. Regionally and internationally veto from Russia and Iranian support are other major factors which making conflict an ending game,” Emile Hokayem, said.
“Syrian regime is facing serious challenges in terms of resources as by all definitions, Syria has turned into a failed state.
To a question of using chemical weapons by Assad regime he said that he had no doubt that chemicals have been used and same had been denied.
Victor Smirnov, Russian Ambassador in Bahrain, who was present during the event, said that there was no confirmation by any credible laboratory to establish claim of using of chemical weapons by Assad regime. The Russian envoy also disagreed with the picture being portrayed as if the Syrian Government was only responsible for human rights violations he said that massacre in which 250 Syrian Army soldiers were executed shouldn’t be condoned by the international community. “The killings from both sides should be stopped,” Ambassador Smirnov said.
Emile Hokayem’s newly released Adelphi book, “Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant,” provides insight into the myriad opposition groups, the conflicting external interests and the murky calculations of the Assad regime. Tracking the causes of dissent that laid the groundwork for rebellion, he looks at how Syria’s largely apolitical society mobilised and at the unpredictable dynamics that have been unleashed as the protest movement has radicalised and militarised.