MANAMA: There have been several claims in international and opposition social media, alleging that the Syrian government has intensified its use of Chlorine gas against civilian and military targets in Idlib, Hama and Damascus Provinces since April, 15 2014, according to IHC Inc., report.
“These have been corroborated with videos on social and mainstream media showing civilians suffering from symptoms associated with the use of chemical weapons (CW), although IHS has been unable to verify these independently. There are no firm casualty figures from these attacks, and the numbers killed appear small compared to the August 2013 Damascus attacks,” Firas Abi Ali, Head of Middle East and North Africa Analysis at IHS Country Risk, on claims of increased chemical weapons usage in Syria, said.
“If confirmed, it indicates that Assad assesses that he can use these weapons with impunity, given US unwillingness to intervene directly, and reflects his own forces’ overstretch in the face of opposition offensives in Daraa, Aleppo and Latakia. Moreover, the use of chemical weapons is a likely deliberate tactic intended to highlight to the civilian population the severe cost of supporting the insurgency. Thus far, the attacks have focused on areas that Assad’s forces consider strategically important, such as the environs of the capital and the roads linking Homs and Hama to Idlib and Aleppo.”
“Despite the resumption of the use of CW in violation of international conventions and of the Syrian government’s commitment to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, direct US-led military intervention in Syria is very unlikely during the Obama presidency.
“Even if the administration were prepared to respond by initiating a high-risk and protracted air campaign, with the aim of forcing Assad to the negotiating table, there is no credible negotiator on the opposition’s side who could represent and control the rival militant factions.
“Only a series of spectacularly large CW attacks, killing thousands of civilians, would apply enough media pressure to force the administration to change course. Assad most likely knows this, and his forces are likely to act accordingly.”