The Turkish lukewarm response and not committing to be part of the coalition to carry out attacks on ISIS is likely to undermine its effectiveness in Iraq, Syria, according to Zaineb Al-Assam, Senior Middle East Analyst, IHS Country Risk.
A conference hosted in Paris by French president François Hollande was launched on September 15th with the objective of co-ordinating an international response to counter the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
Turkish policy appears ambivalent; although some European jihadists have been deported, and there is some disruption of low-level smuggling, on 13 September the New York Times newspaper, quoting intelligence officials from unnamed Western states, indicated that oil shipments from the Islamic State were continuing to move to Turkey.
The apparent reluctance of Turkey to clamp down on funding and recruitment channels for the Islamic State is likely to prove critical. Turkey’s open border with Syria facilitates Islamic State oil smuggling and the movement of fighters and weapons to the organisation.
Furthermore, Iran and Syria, among the countries with greatest interest, and most active involvement in fighting Islamic State, were not invited to attend the Jeddah and Paris meetings. The US reportedly prevented France from extending an invitation to Iran while the US’s official position excludes co-operation with Bashar al-Assad, who is viewed as the root cause of Syria’s civil war.
Although they overtly object to potential US air strikes inside Syria without Assad’s prior agreement, Syria and Iran will be unlikely to obstruct initiatives, given a mutual interest in defeating Islamic State. However, both states will be keen to exert maximum leverage on the US in return for their willingness to accept US intervention.