The talks are the first major peace initiative in eastern Ukraine since the September 2014 Minsk ceasefire agreement, according to By Alisa Lockwood, Head of Europe/CIS Analysis at IHS Country Risk.
“The failure of the previous agreement means that there will now be a waiting period during which the West gauges whether implementation will succeed. As such, sanctions on Russia are very unlikely to be rolled back in the 1 month outlook, and broader issues of mutual distrust between Russia and the West will persist,” the author of the Minsk Talk Analysis, believes.
“On the ground, fighting along the existing frontline, notably in Debaltseve, is very likely to continue ahead of the ceasefire date. There are a number of potential obstacles to successful implementation of the roadmap. These have been particularly starkly highlighted by contradictions already emerging on the question of granting autonomy to the separatist regions. Although the document stipulates that amendments to the Ukrainian constitution must grant a degree of autonomy by the end of 2015, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has strongly denied that autonomy or federalisation is on offer.”
“The requirement to disarm all ‘illegal’ groups and withdraw foreign forces may also be problematic, given that Russia has until now denied that any Russian troops are present in Ukraine; equally, Kiev may not be able to control the volunteer battalions that have been fighting on the Ukrainian side.
“Even in the ‘best’ case scenario, where gradual de-escalation results in a frozen conflict situation along the lines of Transnistria, the separatist republics will remain a source of regional instability, criminal activity, and weaken Ukraine’s ability to recover from the crisis, leaving Kiev vulnerable to further Russian interference.”