LONDON: Ramadi is the first major city to fall to the Islamic State since its initial offensive in the summer of 2014; the majority of al-Anbar province is now under Islamic State control. An operation to retake Mosul is unlikely to move ahead until al-Anbar has been secured, which is unlikely in the six-month outlook at least, according to Zaineb Al-Assam, senior analyst at IHS Country Risk.
The loss of Ramadi and likely attempts by the Islamic State to mount attacks in Baghdad and Karbala will undermine the already low credibility of the Iraqi government, which is far less able to secure the confidence of the Sunni community, and hasten the fragmentation of the country.
In the two week to one month outlook, it is probable that the Islamic State will prepare to retake either Tikrit or Beiji to mark the anniversary of the Caliphate. However, the fact that al-Anbar is all but entirely controlled by the Islamic State puts neighbouring Baghdad and Karbala province increasingly within its reach of attack. The Islamic State’s stated long-term aspiration, in line with its strong anti-Shia and sectarian narrative, is attacking, if not taking over, Shia-majority cities such as Karbala and Baghdad.
However, the risk of these provinces being overrun in a conventional advance is mitigated by probable US airstrikes and the fact that the Islamic State is unlikely to be able to capture and hold largely Shia provinces. At most the Islamic State, should it prove able to hold al-Anbar province, could attempt incursions into Sunni-majority neighbourhoods in western Baghdad, claiming these as parts of its Caliphate. Islamic State raids into these provinces are likely to be preceded by the capture of Abu Ghraib and al-Nukhayb (both in al-Anbar province) respectively. The Islamic State will probably attempt to carry out attacks, with the aim of humiliating the Iraqi government and Iran, and inciting civil war.
The loss of Ramadi further confirms the popular domestic perception of Abadi as ineffective and weak, and makes him less able to achieve a balance between meeting the interests of the US and Iran in return for their military support. Although Abadi’s removal would be a high-risk development, unlikely to be sought by either Iran or the US, there is likely to be increased Iranian pressure on Abadi to replace Iraq’s Defence Minister Khaled al-Obeidi.
The Islamic State overran the Operations Command Headquarters and the Iraqi Army’s 8th Division military base over the weekend. Before the start of the Islamic State offensive in Ramadi, pro-Islamic State supporters on social media posted a purported letter signed by the group’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, dated late April and urging militants in Syria to redeploy to Iraq. IHS could not independently verify the authenticity of the letter, but this suggests that the offensive in Ramadi was well-planned in advance by the Islamic State leadership, probably in anticipation of another major offensive to coincide with the 1st anniversary of the Caliphate on 29 June.
The loss of pro-government Ramadi to the Islamic State followed months of fighting for control of the city. Most of the desert province’s population centres, including the second city of Fallujah, which by contrast has long been an anti-government stronghold, have been under the Islamic State’s control since January 2014. Ramadi is the first Iraq city to fall to the Islamic State since its initial offensive in June 2014. It’s loss reflects how far off the government is from redressing weaknesses that led to the Iraqi Army’s initial collapse last summer, including the lack of army morale, poor leadership, and corruption and lack of effective Iraqi government air support.