LEXINGTON, Mass. Macroeconomic forecasters at IHS Global Insight who predict outcomes for Canada, Estonia, Romania, Slovenia and Ukraine, provided the most accurate forecasts of gross domestic product and consumer price inflation for 2014, according to an annual survey of leading forecasters conducted by Consensus Economics. IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight, announced the awards today.
Arlene Kish, Canada economist received the Consensus Economics 2014 Forecast Accuracy Award for being the best overall of more than 22 forecasters at predicting the eventual 2014 outcomes. For the survey period, Kish predicted Canada’s 2014 GDP growth and inflation with the lowest mean absolute error rate of 0.175 percent averaged across both variables, compared with actual results of 2.5 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively.
Sharon Fisher, Estonia economist, received the award for being the best overall of more than 15 forecasters at predicting the 2014 outcomes. She predicted Estonia’s 2014 GDP growth and inflation with the lowest mean absolute error rate of 1.279 percent averaged across both variables, compared with actual results of 2.1 percent for GDP and -0.1 percent for inflation. Fisher, along with Ralf Wiegert, IHS Global Insight economist, was also awarded the 2013 Forecast Accuracy Award for Estonia.
Charles Movit, Romania economist, received the Forecast Accuracy Award for being the best overall of more than 21 forecasters at predicting the 2014 outcomes. Movit predicted Romania’s 2014 GDP growth and inflation with the lowest mean absolute error rate of 0.656 percent averaged across both variables, compared with actual results of 2.9 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.
Andrew Birch, Slovenia economist, took home the award for being the best overall of more than 16 forecasters at predicting the 2014 outcomes. He predicted Slovenia’s 2014 GDP growth and inflation with the lowest mean absolute error rate of 1.698 percent averaged across both variables, compared with actual results of 2.6 percent for GDP and 0.2 percent for inflation.
Lilit Gevorgyan received the Forecast Accuracy Award for Ukraine for being the best overall of more 33 forecasters at predicting the eventual 2014 outcomes. Gevorgyan predicted Ukraine’s 2014 GDP growth and inflation with the lowest mean absolute error rate of 4.447 percent averaged across both variables, compared with actual results of -6.8 percent and 12.1 percent, respectively.
“These awards demonstrate the outstanding work our experts perform and the value the IHS economic service delivers to its clients,” said Jerre Stead, IHS chairman and chief executive officer. “Every IHS colleague can be proud of the great work of Andrew, Arlene, Charles, Lilit, Ralf, Sharon and the entire global macroeconomics team.”
Consensus Economics collects forecasts from over 700 economists around the world each month. It was founded in 1989 to measure consensus expectations, which are seen as macroeconomic forecast benchmarks by investment and planning managers, as well as government and public sector institutions, who find the data it collects useful, timely and accurate.
Learn more about the methodology for the Consensus Economics Forecaster Accuracy Awards for the G7 and Western Europe and the Eastern Europe regions.