As acquirers in MENA, Gulf banks are taking the place of European banks that are shoring up their balance sheets in the aftermath of the financial and sovereign crises.
“Banks in the Gulf have capital to spare, and are literally capitalizing on their traditional strengths such as strong capital positions, healthy liquidity, and supportive shareholders to pursue acquisitions in MENA emerging-market countries, where opportunities for long-term growth exist,” Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Timucin Engin, said.
Looking at the prices of the announced and realized deals, we observe that the price of a controlling stake in a financial institution is significantly lower than before the crisis, creating affordable access for long-term business operators.
“We look at the potential impact on the ratings of issuers on a case by case basis. Potential rating movements depend on a conflux of factors, such as how well capitalized the acquirers will be post-acquisition, how well they will manage the credit exposures arising from these expansions, and whether they will be able to reap potential benefits of diversification,” Engin, said.
“Growth into higher economic risk countries could boost a bank’s risk-adjusted capital requirements, lowering our assessment of its capital adequacy. However, Gulf banks generally have supportive shareholders and strong internal capital generation which might serve as a cushion.”
“Furthermore, these transactions are opportunities for diversification into markets with large unbanked populations, which can provide for longer-term growth. A negative factor is that, excluding a few ones, banks in the Gulf–Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates–usually lack lending and credit underwriting experience outside their region, which we view as a significant risk factor.”