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Downside trends in crude prices may strain current balance

August 12, 2013
0

GCC PortsSustained higher price realization for oil in global market allowed GCC countries to enhance their fiscal surplus in 2012, according to Kuwait Financial Centre (Markaz), report.

Expansionary fiscal policy in the form of large scale infrastructure projects, generous subsidies and state sponsored welfare schemes is expected to bring down the surplus.

Downside being a fall in global crude prices might strain the balances. Bahrain is the only GCC country which slipped into deficit (-0.8%) in 2012 and it is expected to worsen to -3.1% in 2013.
According to the IMF, the consolidated current account balance of the GCC is estimated to reach 20.2% of GDP in 2013 from 23% of GDP in 2012.

Kuwait is expected to maintain the highest ratio, at 41% of GDP in 2013. Qatar and Saudi Arabia are also expected to see healthy current account balances of 19% and 29% respectively in 2013.

Tags: Markaz
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