LONDON: Sunni Arab military intervention in Yemen is likely to involve some Saudi military action along Yemen’s northern border, while Egypt sends an expeditionary force to the south to secure Aden, in the hope of eventually moving north towards San’a, according to Firas Abi Ali, Head of Middle East Analysis, IHS Country Risk.
However, this kind of intervention would be unlikely to make a significant difference militarily against the Houthi in the north of the country, which is where Saudi interests primarily lie, and what the Sunni Arab troops would need to capture in order to restore Hadi to the capital, San’a.
The sponsors of the Sunni Shia war now assess that their core interests are sufficiently under threat to warrant direct involvement. Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen is represents a change from fighting Iran’s proxies via its own proxies, to fighting proxies directly. This follows Iran’s own increasing involvement in Syria, where Iranian advisors have been present throughout the conflict, and its sending of troops to Iraq that it has claimed are part of the Iraqi Shia militias.
“Iran will likely feel under increased pressure to reach an accord in the P5+1 negotiation which prevent further sanctions at the very least, in order to ensure it can continue to sponsor its proxies. Iran is also likely to retaliate by putting additional pressure on Saudi Arabia through Bahrain, where it has refrained so far from supporting Bahraini protesters and insurgents directly.
“Neither the Egyptians nor the Saudis are likely to be able to match the Houthi and their allies in combat in mountainous terrains in which familiarity with the grounds will prove a major advantage. Moreover, such intervention is likely to prompt an increase in Iranian aid to the Houthi, which would in turn force Egypt and Gulf states to increase their commitment further.
As such, this intervention is likely being open ended if it is to achieve the political objective of restoring Hadi’s power to San’a, as the Yemeni Army has fragmented, and there is no political leadership that would be capable of restoring order to the country without external support.”